Kamfanin WestRock kamfani ne na takarda da tarkace.Kamfanin ya haɓaka da ƙarfi ta hanyar M&A azaman hanyar haɓaka haɓaka.
Babban rabon hannun jari ya sa ya zama wasan samun kuɗi mai ƙarfi, kuma rabon kuɗin kuɗi na kashi 50% yana nufin cewa an sami kuɗi sosai.
Ba ma son siyan hannun jari na keke-da-keke yayin haɓakar yanki/tattalin arziki.Tare da hannun jarin da ke shirin gamawa 2019 a makwanni 52 masu girma, hannun jari ba su da kyan gani a wannan lokacin.
Sa hannun jarin haɓakar rabe-rabe sanannen hanya ce kuma babban nasara don samar da dukiya cikin dogon lokaci.Za mu ba da haske da yawa masu tasowa don gano mafi kyawun "hannun jari na haɓaka rabo na gobe."A yau muna kallon masana'antar marufi ta hanyar Kamfanin WestRock (WRK).Kamfanin ya kasance babban dan wasa a bangaren takarda da kayan kwalliya.Hannun jari yana ba da yawan rabo mai ƙarfi, kuma kamfanin ya yi amfani da M&A don haɓaka girma akan lokaci.Koyaya, akwai wasu jajayen tutoci don la'akari.Bangaren marufi yana da zagayowar yanayi, kuma lokaci-lokaci kamfanin ya narkar da masu hannun jari ta hanyar ba da ãdalci don taimakawa wajen samar da yarjejeniyar M&A.Duk da yake muna son WestRock a ƙarƙashin yanayin da ya dace, lokacin ba yanzu ba ne.Za mu jira raguwa a cikin sashin kafin mu ci gaba da yin la'akari da Kamfanin WestRock.
WestRock yana kera da siyar da takarda iri-iri da samfuran marufi iri-iri a duk faɗin duniya.Kamfanin yana tushen a Atlanta, GA, amma yana da wuraren aiki sama da 300.Ƙarshen kasuwannin da WestRock ke sayarwa a ciki ba su da iyaka.Kamfanin yana samar da kusan kashi biyu bisa uku na dala biliyan 19 a cikin tallace-tallacen shekara-shekara daga marufi.Sauran na uku an samo su ne daga tallace-tallacen kayan masarufi.
Kamfanin WestRock ya ga girma mai ƙarfi a cikin mafi yawan shekaru 10 da suka gabata.Kudaden shiga sun karu a CAGR na 20.59%, yayin da EBITDA ya girma akan ƙimar 17.84% akan tsarin lokaci guda.Ayyukan M&A ne suka jagoranci wannan (wanda zamuyi dalla-dalla daga baya).
Don ƙarin fahimtar ƙarfin aiki da rauni na WestRock, za mu kalli ma'auni masu mahimmanci da yawa.
Muna sake duba iyakokin aiki don tabbatar da cewa Kamfanin WestRock yana da fa'ida koyaushe.Har ila yau, muna son saka hannun jari a kamfanoni masu karfi na tsabar kudi, don haka muna duban canjin kudaden shiga zuwa tsabar kudi kyauta.A ƙarshe, muna so mu ga cewa gudanarwa yana tura albarkatun kuɗi na kamfani yadda ya kamata, don haka muna duba ƙimar kuɗin da aka samu akan jarin da aka saka (CROCI).Za mu yi duk waɗannan ta amfani da alamomi guda uku:
Muna ganin hoto mai gauraya idan muka kalli ayyuka.A hannu ɗaya, kamfanin ya gaza cika adadin ma'auni na mu.Gefen aikin kamfanin ya kasance mai rauni tsawon shekaru.Bugu da ƙari, kawai ana fahimtar canjin 5.15% FCF da dawowar 4.46% akan babban jarin da aka saka.Koyaya, akwai wasu mahallin da ake buƙata waɗanda ke ƙara wasu abubuwa masu kyau zuwa bayanan.Kashe makudan kudi sun yi tashin gwauron zabi na tsawon lokaci.Kamfanin yana saka hannun jari a cikin wasu mahimman wuraren da suka haɗa da Mahrt Mill, shukar Porto Feliz, da Florence Mill.Wadannan jarin sun kai kusan dala biliyan 1 tare da wannan shekarar da ta kasance mafi girma (dala miliyan 525 da aka saka).Zuba hannun jarin zai jawo ci gaba kuma yakamata ya samar da dala miliyan 240 a cikin ƙarin EBITDA na shekara-shekara.
Wannan ya kamata ya haifar da haɓakawa a cikin fassarar FCF, da kuma CROCI inda manyan matakan CAPEX zasu iya rinjayar ma'auni.Mun kuma ga gefen aiki yana faɗaɗa tsawon shekaru biyu da suka gabata (kamfanin yana aiki a cikin M&A, don haka muna neman haɗin kai).Gabaɗaya, za mu buƙaci mu sake duba waɗannan ma'aunin lokaci-lokaci don tabbatar da cewa ma'aunin aiki ya ci gaba da inganta.
Baya ga ma'auni na aiki, yana da mahimmanci ga kowane kamfani ya gudanar da haƙƙin mallaka.Kamfanin da ke karbar bashi mai yawa ba zai iya haifar da matsi a kan rafukan tsabar kudi ba, har ma ya fallasa masu zuba jari ga kasada idan kamfanin ya fuskanci koma baya na bazata.
Yayin da muka sami takardar ma'auni ba ta da kuɗi (dala miliyan 151 kawai akan dala biliyan 10 a cikin jimlar bashi), rabon amfanin WestRock na 2.4X EBITDA yana iya sarrafawa.Mu yawanci muna amfani da rabon 2.5X azaman matakin taka tsantsan.Kwanan nan nauyin bashin ya karu a sakamakon babban haɗin gwiwar dala biliyan 4.9 tare da KapStone Paper da Packaging, don haka muna sa ran gudanarwa za ta biya wannan bashin a cikin shekaru masu zuwa.
WestRock Company ya kafa kansa a matsayin ingantaccen hannun jari mai girma, yana haɓaka biyansa kowane cikin shekaru 11 da suka gabata.Rikicin kamfanin yana nufin cewa rabon rabon ya ci gaba da girma ta hanyar koma bayan tattalin arziki.Adadin hannun jari a yau ya kai $1.86 a kowane hannun jari kuma ya samar da kashi 4.35% akan farashin hannun jari na yanzu.Wannan babban yawan amfanin ƙasa ne idan aka kwatanta da 1.90% wanda Baitulmalin Amurka na shekaru 10 ke bayarwa.
Abin da masu zuba jari ke buƙatar duba tare da WestRock a cikin dogon lokaci shine yadda yanayin kamfani (wani lokaci) yanayin rashin daidaituwa ya shafi ci gaban rabonsa.Ba wai kawai WestRock yana aiki ne a cikin sassan kewayawa ba, har ma kamfanin ba ya jin kunya game da yarjejeniyar M&A mai toshewa wanda zai iya yin tasiri a kaikaice.A wasu lokuta rabon zai yi girma ta hanyar tsalle-tsalle - wani lokaci, da wuya kwata-kwata.Ƙirar da aka yi na baya-bayan nan ita ce ƙarar dinari na alama don kashi 2.2%.Duk da haka, kamfanin ya ci gaba da haɓaka kuɗinsa sosai a tsawon lokaci.Yayin da rabon na iya girma ba daidai ba, rabon biyan kuɗi na yanzu na ƙasa da 50% yana barin isasshen ɗaki wanda yakamata masu saka jari su ji daɗi game da amincin biyan kuɗi.Ba mu hango raguwar rabon kuɗi yana faruwa ba tare da wani ɗan gajeren yanayin da ya samu ba.
Masu zuba jari suna buƙatar kuma suyi la'akari da cewa gudanarwa yana da rikodin shiga cikin daidaito don taimakawa wajen samar da manyan haɗe-haɗe.An narkar da masu hannun jari sau biyu a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata, kuma sayayya da gaske ba fifiko ba ne ga gudanarwa.Bayar da daidaiton ya haifar da cikas ga ci gaban EPS ga masu saka hannun jari.
Halin haɓakar Kamfanin WestRock zai ragu (ba za ku ga haɗe-haɗe na biliyoyin da yawa ba a kowace shekara), amma akwai nau'ikan wutsiya na duniya da takamaiman levers waɗanda WestRock za su iya amfani da su a cikin shekaru masu zuwa.WestRock da takwarorinsa za su ci gaba da cin gajiyar karuwar buƙatun marufi.Ba wai kawai yawan jama'a ke ci gaba da haɓakawa da kuma haɓaka tattalin arziki a cikin ƙasashe masu tasowa ba, har ma da ci gaban kasuwancin e-commerce ya haifar da ƙarin buƙatun kayan jigilar kayayyaki.A cikin Amurka, ana sa ran buƙatun buƙatun marufi za su yi girma a CAGR na 4.1% ta hanyar 2024. Wadannan wutsiya masu karfin tattalin arziki suna nufin ƙarin buƙatun buƙatun abinci, akwatunan jigilar kaya, da injuna don haɓaka ƙarfin da kamfanoni ke da jigilar kayayyaki.Bugu da ƙari, samfuran da aka yi amfani da takarda za su iya samun damar karɓar rabo daga samfuran filastik yayin da matsin lamba na siyasa ke girma don rage sharar filastik.
Musamman ga WestRock, kamfanin yana ci gaba da narkar da haɗewarsa da KapStone.Kamfanin zai gane fiye da dala miliyan 200 a cikin haɗin gwiwa ta 2021, kuma a cikin yankuna da dama (duba ginshiƙi a ƙasa).WestRock yana da ingantaccen rikodin bin M&A, kuma muna tsammanin wannan zai ci gaba na dogon lokaci.Duk da yake ba kowace yarjejeniya za ta zama blockbuster ba, akwai fa'idodin farashi da matsayin kasuwa ga masana'anta don ci gaba da haɓaka girma.Wannan kadai zai zama dalili don neman ci gaba ta hanyar M&A.
Ƙarfafawa zai zama babbar barazanar da masu zuba jari ke buƙatar sani na tsawon lokaci mai tsawo.Masana'antar marufi tana da zagaye, kuma ta fuskar tattalin arziki.Kasuwancin zai ga matsin lamba na aiki yayin koma bayan tattalin arziki, kuma dabi'ar WestRock na bin M&A zai iya fallasa masu saka hannun jari zuwa ƙarin haɗarin dilution yakamata gudanarwa ta yi amfani da daidaito don taimakawa biyan kuɗi.
Hannun jari na WestRock Company sun yi ƙarfi don ƙare shekara.Farashin hannun jari na yanzu na kusan $43 yana a ƙarshen ƙarshen mako 52 ($31-43).
A halin yanzu manazarta suna yin hasashen EPS na cikakken shekara akan kusan $3.37.Sakamakon riba mai yawa na 12.67X shine ɗan ƙaramin ƙimar 6% zuwa rabon PE na matsakaicin shekaru 10 na 11.9X.
Don samun ƙarin hangen nesa game da kima, za mu duba haja ta hanyar ruwan tabarau na tushen FCF.Yawan amfanin FCF na hannun jari na yanzu na 8.54% ya yi daidai da mafi girma na shekaru da yawa, amma har yanzu yana zuwa mafi girman kewayon sa.Wannan ya fi ban sha'awa idan aka yi la'akari da karuwa na kwanan nan a CAPEX, wanda ke hana FCF (kuma don haka yana tura FCF yawan amfanin ƙasa ta wucin gadi).
Babban damuwarmu game da kimar Kamfanin WestRock shine gaskiyar cewa haja ce ta zagaye-zagaye a cikin abin da za a iya cewa ƙarshen wutsiya na haɓakar tattalin arziki.Kamar yadda lamarin yake tare da hannun jari masu yawa, za mu guje wa haja har sai sashin ya juya, kuma ma'aunin aiki mai matsa lamba yana ba da mafi kyawun damar samun hannun jari.
Kamfanin WestRock babban dan wasa ne a cikin marufi - sarari "vanilla", amma wanda ke da kaddarorin haɓaka ta hanyar manufofin muhalli da ƙara yawan jigilar kayayyaki.Hannun jari babban wasan samun kudin shiga ne ga masu saka hannun jari, kuma yakamata ma'aunin aikin kamfanin ya inganta yayin da aka sami haɗin gwiwar KapStone.Duk da haka, kaddarorin kamfani na cyclical yana nufin cewa mafi kyawun damar mallakar haja na iya gabatar da kansu ga masu saka jari masu haƙuri.Muna ba da shawarar jiran matsananciyar macroeconomic don tura haja daga madaidaicin makonni 52.
Idan kuna jin daɗin wannan labarin kuma kuna son samun sabuntawa akan sabon bincikenmu, danna "Bi" kusa da sunana a saman wannan labarin.
Bayyanawa: Ni/mu ba mu da matsayi a kowane hannun jari da aka ambata, kuma ba mu da shirin fara kowane matsayi a cikin sa'o'i 72 masu zuwa.Na rubuta wannan labarin da kaina, kuma yana bayyana ra'ayina.Bana karbar diyya akansa (sai dai daga Neman Alfa).Ba ni da wata alaƙar kasuwanci da kowane kamfani wanda aka ambata hajansa a cikin wannan labarin.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-06-2020