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Hatsarin duniya ya ragu a watannin karshe na shekarar 2019, kamar yadda binciken kasadar Euromoney ya nuna, yayin da alamun samun nasarar kawo karshen takaddamar cinikayya tsakanin Sin da Amurka, an sassauta hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, zabuka sun ba da wasu sakamako, masu tsara manufofi sun koma kan matakan kara kuzari. don tallafawa ci gaban tattalin arziki.
Matsakaicin matsakaicin matsakaicin haɗarin duniya ya inganta daga kashi na uku zuwa na huɗu yayin da amincin kasuwancin ya daidaita kuma haɗarin siyasa ya kwanta, kodayake har yanzu yana ƙasa da 50 cikin maki 100 mai yuwuwa, inda ya kasance tun bayan rikicin kuɗin duniya na 2007-2008.
Karancin maki yana nuna cewa har yanzu akwai rashin jin daɗi a cikin hasashen masu zuba jari na duniya, tare da kariya da sauyin yanayi da ke haifar da inuwa, rikicin Hong Kong da ke ci gaba da faruwa, zaɓen Amurka na gabatowa da halin da Iran ke ciki a cikin sauran abubuwan da ke kiyaye duniya. haɗarin zafin jiki ya ƙaru don lokacin.
Kwararru sun rage yawan G10 a cikin 2019, ciki har da Faransa, Jamus, Italiya, Japan, Burtaniya da Amurka, yayin da rikice-rikicen kasuwanci ke lalata ayyukan tattalin arziki da matsin lamba na siyasa - gami da matsalolin Brexit wanda ya haifar da wani babban zaben gama gari - kodayake lamarin ya daidaita a cikin kwata na hudu.
Ci gaban tattalin arzikin kasashe masu ci gaban tattalin arziki ya ragu cikin shekara ta biyu a jere, inda ya ragu da kasa da kashi 2% a hakikanin gaskiya, a cewar IMF, sakamakon ba da kariya tsakanin Amurka da Sin a daya bangaren, da Amurka da EU a daya bangaren.
Rikicin haɗari ya tsananta a cikin Latin Amurka, tare da raguwar darajar zuwa Brazil, Chile, Ecuador da kuma Paraguay a cikin watannin ƙarshe na 2019, wani ɓangare na rashin zaman lafiya.
Matsalolin tattalin arzikin Argentina da sakamakon zaɓe su ma suna dagula masu zuba jari yayin da ƙasar ta fara sake fasalin bashi.
Manazarta sun rage kimarsu ga wasu kasuwanni masu tasowa da na kan iyaka, da suka hada da Indiya, Indonesia, Lebanon, Myanmar (gamin zaben bana), Koriya ta Kudu (kuma tana fuskantar zabuka a watan Afrilu), da Turkiyya, yayin da kwarin gwiwa kan yanayin siyasa da tattalin arziki ya ragu. .
Makin Hong Kong ma ya kara faduwa, yayin da zanga-zangar ba ta nuna alamar samun sauki ba sakamakon dimbin nasarorin da 'yan takara masu rajin kare demokradiyya suka samu a zaben kananan hukumomi da aka yi a watan Nuwamba.
Tare da cinyewa, fitarwa da saka hannun jari, da masu shigowa yawon buɗe ido suna raguwa, wataƙila GDP ya ragu da kashi 1.9% a bara yayin da aka yi hasashen haɓaka da 0.2% kawai a cikin 2020 a cewar IMF.
Makomar Hong Kong a matsayin cibiyar kasuwanci da cibiyar hada-hadar kudi za ta lalace ta hanyar gridlock na siyasa ya yi imanin Friedrich Wu, mai ba da gudummawar binciken ECR mai tushe a Jami'ar Fasaha ta Nanyang da ke Singapore.
"Masu zanga-zangar sun dauki hanyar 'komai-ko-ko-ko'' ('Buƙatun Biyar, Ba Rarraba ɗaya ba').Maimakon ba da wadannan bukatu, wadanda ke kalubalantar 'yancin kai na Beijing, na yi imanin cewa, a maimakon haka, Beijing za ta kara tsaurara igiyoyinta a Hong Kong."
Game da batun 'yancin kai, Wu ya ce, Beijing ba za ta taba yin sulhu ba ko da kuwa yadda sakamakon ke da zafi.Ban da haka, Hong Kong ba ita ce babbar 'Goose da ke sanya ƙwai na zinariya' ba, in ji shi.
"Daga tashar jiragen ruwa ta daya a duniya a shekarar 2000, yanzu Hong Kong ta fadi kasa ta bakwai, bayan Shanghai, Singapore, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shenzhen, Busan da Guangzhou;kuma mai lamba takwas, Qingdao, tana tashi cikin sauri kuma za ta riske ta cikin shekaru biyu zuwa uku."
Hakazalika, bisa ga na baya-bayan nan, Rahoton Cibiyoyin Kuɗi na Duniya na Satumba na 2019 na London, yayin da HK ke matsayi na uku, Shanghai ya tashi zuwa matsayi na biyar da ya wuce Tokyo, yayin da Beijing da Shenzhen suka kasance a matsayi na bakwai da tara.
“Matsayin HK a matsayin mu’amalar tattalin arziki/kudi tsakanin manyan kasashen duniya da sauran kasashen duniya yana raguwa cikin sauri.Shi ya sa Beijing za ta iya daukar matsayi mai tsauri ga masu zanga-zangar, "in ji Wu.
Dangane da batun Taiwan, in ji shi, ci gaban siyasa a Hong Kong zai dagula dabi'unsu ne kawai game da kusanci da kasar Sin, ko da yake a fannin tattalin arziki rugujewar Hong Kong ba zai yi wani babban tasiri ga tattalin arzikin Taiwan ba, wanda a zahiri ya hade da babban yankin. .
Sakamakon wannan juriyar tattalin arziki, ƙimar haɗarin Taiwan ta inganta a cikin kwata na huɗu, binciken ya nuna.
"Kamfanoni da yawa na kasa da kasa tare da hedkwatarsu a Hong Kong za su yi la'akari da canza matsuguninsu zuwa Singapore kuma manyan mutane za su ajiye wasu dukiyarsu a cikin ingantaccen tsarin hada-hadar kudi da kasuwannin kadarori na Singapore."
Tiago Freire, wani mai ba da gudummawa ga binciken, wanda ya kware wajen yin aiki a China da Singapore, ya fi taka tsantsan.Ya kara da cewa yayin da kasar Singapore za ta ci gajiyar wasu kamfanoni da ke tafiyar da harkokinsu daga Hong Kong zuwa Singapore, musamman kamfanonin hada-hadar kudi, bai yi imani da cewa "yana da matsayi mai kyau kamar Hong Kong don yin aiki a matsayin wata hanyar shiga kasar Sin ga kamfanonin kasashen waje".
Makin Singapore har ma ya ragu a cikin kwata na huɗu, galibi ya samo asali ne daga raguwar darajar alƙaluman jama'a, ɗaya daga cikin alamomin tsari da yawa a cikin binciken.
Freire ya ce "Karshen karshe mun ga wasu ci gaba da suka kara matsin lamba kan zaman lafiyar kasar Singapore".“A bangaren haihuwa, mun ga gwamnati ta kaddamar da wani sabon shiri na bayar da tallafin kusan kashi 75% na kudin maganin IVF ga ma’auratan Singapore.Abin takaici, wannan alama ce ta alama, da nufin nuna cewa gwamnati na ƙoƙarin duk wani abu don inganta yawan haihuwa, kuma ba hanya mai kyau don magance matsalar ba, saboda da wuya ya yi tasiri mai ma'ana."
Gwamnati kuma tana kokarin magance koma bayan bakin haure da zanga-zangar lokaci-lokaci ta hanyar takaita bakin haure zuwa Singapore."Misali, gwamnatin kasar Singapore tana takaita adadin bakin haure da ke aiki a wasu kamfanoni daga kashi 40% zuwa 38% na ma'aikatansu a shekarar 2020."
Duk da haka binciken ya nuna cewa kasuwanni masu tasowa fiye da yadda ba a yi rajista ba a cikin kwata na hudu - kasashe 80 sun zama mafi aminci idan aka kwatanta da 38 sun zama masu haɗari (sauran ba su canza ba) - tare da ɗaya daga cikin mafi shahara shine Rasha.
Komawar ta ta sauka ne ga dalilai daban-daban, a cewar Dmitry Izotov, babban mai bincike a cibiyar binciken tattalin arziki FEB RAS.
Daya daga cikinsu shi ne karin farashin man fetur, da habaka kudaden shigar kamfanonin mai da kuma samar da rarar kudaden gwamnati.Tare da mafi girman kwanciyar hankali na musanya, kudaden shiga na mutum ya karu, tare da amfani.
Har ila yau, Izotov ya lura da haɓakar kwanciyar hankali na gwamnati saboda ƙananan canje-canje a cikin ma'aikata da raguwar ayyukan zanga-zangar, da kuma kwanciyar hankali na banki da ke tasowa daga motsi don magance mummunan bashi.
“Daga watan Oktoban shekarar da ta gabata an bukaci bankuna su yi lissafin adadin bashin da kowane abokin ciniki da ke son karbar lamuni, wanda ke nufin samun lamuni ya fi wahala.Bugu da ƙari, bankunan ba su da matsala game da kuɗin kuɗi, kuma ba sa buƙatar jawo hankalin ajiya a kan babban sikelin. "
Panayotis Gavras, wani kwararre dan kasar Rasha, wanda shi ne shugaban tsare-tsare da dabaru a bankin cinikayya da raya tekun Black Sea, ya bayyana cewa, akwai wuraren da ba a iya kamuwa da su ta fuskar basussuka, karuwar basussuka da yawa da kuma rashin biyan basussuka, lamarin da ya sa Rasha ta fallasa idan aka samu matsalar tattalin arziki. gigice.Amma ya yi nuni da cewa: “Gwamnati ta kasance mai himma wajen kiyaye irin waɗannan mahimman alamomin a ƙarƙashin iko da/ko kuma ta hanyar da ta dace tsawon shekaru da yawa.
"Ma'auni na kasafin kudin yana da kyau, wani wuri tsakanin 2-3% na GDP, matakan bashi na jama'a suna cikin tsari na 15% na GDP, wanda kasa da rabi bashi ne na waje, kuma bashi na waje na waje yana ci gaba da koma baya, ba kadan ba. saboda manufofin gwamnati da karfafa gwiwa ga bankuna da kamfanoni na Rasha. "
Kenya, Najeriya da mafi yawan masu karbar bashi na kasashen kudu da hamadar sahara, ciki har da Habasha mai saurin fadadawa da ma Afirka ta Kudu, an inganta su a cikin kwata na hudu tare da sassan Caribbean, CIS da gabashin Turai, wanda ya hada da Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland da kuma Poland. Romania.
Kasar Afirka ta Kudu ta yi wani bangare ne ta hanyar inganta daidaiton kudin kasashen waje tare da kara karfin kasar Rand a karshen shekara, da kuma kyautata yanayin siyasa karkashin shugaba Cyril Ramaphosa idan aka kwatanta da wanda ya gabace shi.
A cikin Asiya, ƙimar haɗari ta inganta a cikin Sin (ƙananan billa wanda ya taso daga gyare-gyaren haraji da na kuɗi), tare da Philippines, Thailand da Vietnam suna alfahari da samun ci gaba mai ƙarfi da fa'ida daga kamfanonin da ke ƙaura daga China don guje wa harajin haraji.
Binciken haɗari na Euromoney yana ba da jagora mai amsawa don canza ra'ayi na masu sharhi masu shiga a cikin sassan kuɗi da waɗanda ba na kuɗi ba, suna mai da hankali kan abubuwa masu mahimmanci na tattalin arziki, siyasa da tsarin da ke shafar dawowar masu zuba jari.
Ana gudanar da binciken ne a cikin kwata-kwata tsakanin ɗaruruwan masana tattalin arziki da sauran ƙwararrun masu haɗari, tare da tattara sakamakon da aka haɗa tare da ma'auni na samun babban jari da kididdigar basussuka don samar da ƙima da ƙima ga ƙasashe 174 a duniya.
Fassarar kididdigar yana da rikitarwa ta hanyar ingantawa na lokaci-lokaci ga hanyoyin zura kwallaye na Euromoney tun lokacin da aka fara binciken a farkon 1990s.
Aiwatar da sabon, ingantaccen dandamalin zira kwallaye a cikin kwata na uku na 2019, alal misali, ya sami tasiri guda ɗaya akan cikakkiyar maki, canza fassarar sakamakon shekara, amma ba gabaɗaya yana magana da martabar dangi ba, yanayin dogon lokaci ko sabbin kwata-kwata. canje-canje.
Binciken ya sami sabon babban sarki mai daraja tare da amintaccen wurin Switzerland wanda ya koma matsayi na farko a gaban Singapore, Norway, Denmark da Sweden wanda ya rage a cikin biyar na farko.
Switzerland ba ta da cikakkiyar haɗari, kamar yadda aka kwatanta ta tashe-tashen hankula na baya-bayan nan game da sabuwar yarjejeniya da EU, wanda ya haifar da ɓangarorin biyu suna sanya takunkumin kasuwancin hannayen jari.Har ila yau, yana da haɗari ga lokutan ci gaban GDP, ciki har da raguwa mai zurfi a bara.
Koyaya, rarar asusun na yanzu na 10% na GDP, kasafin kuɗi a ma'auni, ƙarancin bashi, babban tanadi na FX da tsarin siyasa mai ƙarfi na neman yarjejeniya sun amince da takaddun sa a matsayin mafaka mai aminci ga masu saka hannun jari.
In ba haka ba, shekara ce ga ƙasashen da suka ci gaba, ciki har da Amurka da Kanada.Dukansu an yi musu alama sosai gabaɗaya, kodayake maki na Amurka ya nuna juriya a cikin kwata na huɗu.
Arzikin Japan ya ragu, tare da tallace-tallacen tallace-tallace da samar da masana'antu noseding yayin da kwarin gwiwa ya ragu zuwa ƙarshen shekara.
A cikin kasashen da ke amfani da kudin Euro, Faransa, Jamus da Italiya sun fuskanci takun sakar kasuwanci a duniya da kasadar siyasa, ciki har da zabuka a Italiya, rashin zaman lafiya a cikin kawancen da ke mulki a Jamus da zanga-zangar adawa da sauye-sauye a birnin Paris lamarin da ya jefa gwamnatin Macron cikin matsin lamba.
Ko da yake Faransa ta sami wani gangami na ƙarshen shekara, musamman daga mafi kyawun adadin tattalin arzikin da aka zato, ƙwararren masani mai zaman kansa Norbert Gaillard ya rage kimar kuɗin gwamnatinsa kaɗan, yana mai cewa: “Ya kamata a aiwatar da fasalin tsarin fansho, amma zai fi tsada fiye da yadda ake tsammani. ana sa ran.Don haka, ban ga yadda rabon bashin jama’a-GDP zai daidaita da ƙasa da 100% cikin shekaru biyu masu zuwa ba.”
Wani kwararre na binciken Euromoney shine M Nicolas Firzli, shugaban Majalisar Kula da Fansho ta Duniya (WPC) da taron tattalin arzikin Singapore (SEF), kuma memba na kwamitin ba da shawara na Cibiyar Gina Kayayyakin Duniya ta Bankin Duniya.
Ya yi tsokaci game da gaskiyar cewa makonni bakwai da suka gabata sun kasance musamman zalunci ga Tarayyar Turai: "A karon farko tun 1991 (Yaƙin Gulf na Farko), ƙasar masana'antu ta Jamus (masana'antar kera motoci da na'urori masu ci gaba) suna nuna alamun haɗin gwiwa. gajeren lokaci) da raunin tsarin (dogon lokaci), ba tare da bege ga masu kera motoci na Stuttgart da Wolfsburg ba.
"Abin da ya kara dagula al'amura, a halin yanzu Faransa ta shiga cikin wani tsari na sake fasalin tsarin fansho wanda ya ga ministan fensho (kuma wanda ya kafa jam'iyyar shugaba Macron) ya yi murabus ba zato ba tsammani kafin Kirsimeti, kuma kungiyoyin kwadago na Markisanci sun dakatar da zirga-zirgar jama'a, tare da bala'i. sakamako ga tattalin arzikin Faransa."
Duk da haka, ya zama shekara mafi kyau ga yankunan da ke fama da bashi, tare da haɓaka maki ga Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal da kuma, musamman, Girka bayan da aka kafa sabuwar gwamnati ta tsakiya bayan nasarar da Kyriakos Mitsotakis ya yi New Democracy a babban zaben kasa a watan Yuli.
Gwamnati ta yi nasarar zartas da kasafin kudinta na farko da karamin hayaniya kuma an ba ta wasu basussuka a madadin aiwatar da gyare-gyare.
Duk da cewa Girka har yanzu tana matsayi na 86 a matsayin kasa ta 86 a cikin kimar kasadar duniya, kasa da sauran kasashe masu amfani da kudin Euro, tana fama da dimbin bashi, ta ga mafi kyawun aikinta na tattalin arziki cikin fiye da shekaru goma a bara tare da karuwar GDP na shekara-shekara sama da 2% a zahiri. a lokacin kashi na biyu da na uku.
Italiya da Spain kuma sun yi rajistar ribar da aka samu a ƙarshen shekara, suna mai da martani ga mafi kyawun aikin tattalin arziƙin da ake tsammani, ƙarancin ɓangaren banki da damuwar basussuka, da kwantar da hankalin siyasa.
Amma duk da haka manazarta na yin taka tsantsan game da makomar 2020. Baya ga kasadar da ke shafar Amurka - ciki har da zabukan da za a yi a watan Nuwamba, dangantakarta da Sin da kuma yanayin da ake ciki da Iran - arzikin Jamus yana tabarbarewa.
Tushen masana'anta na fuskantar kalubale biyu na harajin kasuwanci da ka'idojin muhalli, kuma yanayin siyasa ya fi rashin tabbas yayin da tashin hankali ya karu tsakanin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na Angela Merkel da abokan kawancenta na dimokuradiyyar zamantakewar jama'a masu ra'ayin hagu a karkashin sabon jagoranci.
Har ila yau halin da ake ciki na Burtaniya ya ci gaba da daure kai, duk da cewa kwararu na kasadar sun yi nazari kan sakamakon babban zaben da ke ba da rinjaye mai karfi ga masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na Boris Johnson tare da kawar da matsalolin majalisa.
Kwararru da yawa, ciki har da Norbert Gaillard, sun haɓaka makinsu don kwanciyar hankalin gwamnatin Burtaniya.Dalilina shine gwamnatin Burtaniya ba ta da kwanciyar hankali kuma ta dogara da Jam'iyyar Democratic Unionist ta Arewacin Ireland a lokacin 2018-2019.
"Yanzu, abubuwa sun fito fili, kuma duk da cewa Brexit ba shi da kyau, Firayim Minista Boris Johnson yana da babban rinjaye kuma ikon cinikinsa zai fi girma fiye da kowane lokaci yayin tattaunawa da Tarayyar Turai."
Duk da haka, manazarta sun rabu tsakanin waɗanda, kamar Gaillard, suka fi ƙarfin gwiwa game da hangen nesa, idan aka yi la'akari da mafi ƙayyadaddun tsarin cimma Brexit, da waɗanda ke sa ido kan yanayin tattalin arziki da kasafin kuɗi na Burtaniya cikin taka-tsan-tsan dangane da tsare-tsaren kashe kuɗin jama'a na gwamnati da kuma fatan a'a. -Sakamakon yarjejeniyar ya kamata tattaunawar kasuwanci da EU ta bunkasa ba da kyau ba.
Koyaya, Firzli ya yi imanin cewa masu mallakar kadarori na dogon lokaci daga China - da kuma Amurka, Kanada, Ostiraliya, Singapore da Abu Dhabi ('yan kasuwa masu karfin fensho') - a shirye suke su sake sabunta fare na dogon lokaci akan Burtaniya, duk da haka. wuce kima kashe kuɗi na jama'a da haɗarin kasafin kuɗi masu alaƙa da Brexit a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.
A gefe guda kuma, dokokin ƙa'idar 'core-eurozone' kamar Jamus, Luxembourg, Netherlands da Denmark "na iya samun matukar wahala wajen jawo masu saka hannun jari na waje na dogon lokaci a cikin watanni masu zuwa".
Don ƙarin bayani, je zuwa: https://www.euromoney.com/country-risk, da https://www.euromoney.com/research-and-awards/research don sabuwar kan kasadar kasa.
Don neman ƙarin bayani game da ƙimar haɗarin ƙwararru akan dandamalin Hadarin Ƙasar Euromoney, yi rijista don gwaji
Abubuwan da ke wannan rukunin yanar gizon na cibiyoyin kuɗi ne, ƙwararrun masu saka hannun jari da ƙwararrun masu ba da shawara.Don bayani ne kawai.Da fatan za a karanta Sharuɗɗanmu & Sharuɗɗa, Manufar Keɓantawa da Kukis kafin amfani da wannan rukunin yanar gizon.
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Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-16-2020