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Chiwopsezo chapadziko lonse lapansi chidachepa m'miyezi yomaliza ya 2019, malinga ndi kafukufuku wowopsa mdziko la Euromoney, pomwe zizindikiro zakupambana zidawonekera kuti athetse mkangano wamalonda pakati pa China ndi US, kukwera kwamitengo kunachepa, zisankho zidabweretsa zotsatila zina, ndipo opanga mfundo adatembenukira ku njira zolimbikitsira. kuthandizira kukula kwachuma.
Chiwopsezo chapakati paziwopsezo zapadziko lonse lapansi chikuyenda bwino kuyambira gawo lachitatu mpaka lachinayi pomwe chidaliro cha bizinesi chidakhazikika komanso zoopsa zandale zidakhazikika, ngakhale zidali zochepera 50 mwa mfundo 100 zomwe zingatheke, pomwe zidakhalapo kuyambira pamavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi a 2007-2008.
Kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kukuwonetsa kuti pakadalibe kusapeza bwino pakuwonetsetsa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi, chitetezo ndi kusintha kwanyengo kumayambitsa mthunzi, zovuta za Hong Kong zikupitilira, zisankho zaku US zikubwera komanso momwe zinthu ziliri ndi Iran pakati pa zinthu zina zambiri zomwe zikusunga dziko lapansi. kutentha kwachiwopsezo kwakwera panthawiyi.
Akatswiri adatsitsa ambiri mwa G10 mu 2019, kuphatikiza France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK ndi US, pomwe mikangano yazamalonda idasokoneza magwiridwe antchito azachuma komanso zovuta zandale zikuchulukirachulukira - kuphatikiza zovuta za Brexit zomwe zidayambitsa chisankho china cham'tsogolo - ngakhale zinthu zidakhazikika gawo lachinayi.
Kukula kwachuma kwachuma chapamwamba kunachepa kwa chaka chachiwiri chotsatira, kutsika pansi pa 2% m'mawu enieni, malinga ndi IMF, chifukwa cha chitetezo pakati pa US ndi China mbali imodzi, ndi US ndi EU kumbali inayo.
Ziwopsezo zidachulukirachulukira ku Latin America, pomwe kutsika kunachitika ku Brazil, Chile, Ecuador komanso Paraguay m'miyezi yomaliza ya 2019, motsogozedwa ndi kusakhazikika kwa anthu.
Mavuto azachuma ku Argentina komanso zotsatira za zisankho zikukhumudwitsanso osunga ndalama pomwe dzikolo likuyambanso kukonza ngongole.
Ofufuza adatsitsa ziwerengero zawo m'misika ina yomwe ikubwera komanso yakumalire, kuphatikiza India, Indonesia, Lebanon, Myanmar (zisankho zachaka chino zisanachitike), South Korea (yoyang'anizananso ndi zisankho mu Epulo), ndi Turkey, popeza chidaliro pazandale komanso zachuma zidachepa. .
Zotsatira zaku Hong Kong zidatsikanso, chifukwa ziwonetserozi sizinawonetsere kuti zikuyenda bwino kutsatira phindu lalikulu la oyimira demokalase pamasankho a khonsolo mu Novembala.
Ndi kugwiritsa ntchito, kugulitsa kunja komanso kutsika kwachuma, komanso obwera alendo akuchulukirachulukira, GDP ikuyenera kutsika kwenikweni ndi 1.9% chaka chatha pomwe zikuyembekezeka kukula ndi 0.2% mu 2020 malinga ndi IMF.
Tsogolo la Hong Kong ngati malo ochitira bizinesi komanso malo azachuma lidzathetsedwa ndi gridlock akukhulupirira kuti Friedrich Wu, wothandizira pa kafukufuku wa ECR ku Nanyang Technology University ku Singapore.
"Otsutsawo atenga njira ya 'zonse kapena palibe' ('Zofuna Zisanu, Osati Mmodzi Wochepa').M'malo mopereka izi, zomwe zimatsutsa ufulu wodzilamulira wa Beijing, ndikukhulupirira kuti Beijing ilimbitsa zingwe zake ku Hong Kong. "
Pankhani yaulamuliro, Wu akuti Beijing sidzagonja ngakhale zotsatira zake zimakhala zowawa bwanji.Kupatula apo, Hong Kong salinso 'tsekwe wofunika kwambiri woikira mazira agolide', akutero.
"Kuchokera pa doko loyamba la makontena padziko lonse lapansi mu 2000, Hong Kong tsopano yatsika kufika pa nambala 7, kumbuyo kwa Shanghai, Singapore, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shenzhen, Busan ndi Guangzhou;ndipo nambala eyiti, Qingdao, ikukwera mofulumira ndipo idzaigonjetsa m’zaka ziŵiri kapena zitatu.”
Momwemonso, malinga ndi zaposachedwa, Seputembara 2019 Global Financial Centers Index yaku London, pomwe HK idali pa nambala 3, Shanghai idakwera mpaka pachisanu kupitilira Tokyo, pomwe Beijing ndi Shenzhen adakhala pa nambala 7 ndi 9 motsatana.
“Ntchito ya HK ngati njira yolumikizirana pazachuma/zachuma pakati pa dziko lapansi ndi dziko lonse lapansi ikuchepa msanga.Ichi ndichifukwa chake a Beijing amatha kukhala olimba mtima kwa ochita ziwonetsero, "akutero Wu.
Ponena za Taiwan, akuwonjezera kuti, zochitika zandale ku Hong Kong zidzangokulitsa malingaliro awo motsutsana ndi maubwenzi apamtima ndi China, ngakhale kuti kutha kwachuma kwa Hong Kong sikudzakhudza kwambiri chuma cha Taiwan, chomwe kwenikweni chikugwirizana kwambiri ndi dziko. .
Polimbikitsidwa ndi kulimba kwachuma kumeneku, ziwopsezo za ku Taiwan zidakula mu gawo lachinayi, kafukufukuyu akuwonetsa.
"Mabungwe ambiri amitundu yosiyanasiyana omwe ali ndi likulu lawo ku Hong Kong aganiza zosamutsa nyumba zawo ku Singapore ndipo anthu amtengo wapatali adzayimitsa chuma chawo m'magawo azachuma komanso msika wa katundu waku Singapore."
Tiago Freire, yemwe adathandizira nawo pa kafukufukuyu, yemwe amadziwa ntchito ku China ndi Singapore, ndi wosamala kwambiri.Akunena kuti ngakhale kuti Singapore idzapindula ndi makampani ena omwe akusuntha ntchito zawo kuchokera ku Hong Kong kupita ku Singapore, makamaka makampani a zachuma, samakhulupirira kuti ndi "malo abwino monga Hong Kong kuti agwire ntchito ngati njira yopita ku China kwa makampani akunja".
Zigoli za Singapore zidatsika ngakhale gawo lachinayi, makamaka chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa chiwerengero cha anthu, chimodzi mwazinthu zingapo zomwe zikuwonetsa kafukufukuyu.
"Kota yapitayi tidawona zochitika zomwe zikukakamiza kwambiri kukhazikika kwa anthu ku Singapore," akutero Freire."Kumbali ya chonde, tidawona boma likukhazikitsa pulogalamu yatsopano yopereka ndalama zokwana 75% za chithandizo cha IVF kwa maanja aku Singapore.Tsoka ilo, izi zikuwoneka ngati kusuntha kophiphiritsira, kutanthauza kusonyeza kuti boma likuyesera chilichonse kuti liwongolere kuchuluka kwa chonde, osati njira yabwino yothetsera vutoli, chifukwa sizingatheke kukhala ndi tanthauzo.
Boma likuyeseranso kuthana ndi vuto la anthu olowa m'mayiko ena komanso ziwonetsero zaposachedwa poletsa anthu osamukira ku Singapore."Mwachitsanzo, boma la Singapore likuchepetsa chiwerengero cha anthu osamukira kumayiko ena omwe amagwira ntchito m'makampani ena kuchoka pa 40% mpaka 38% ya ogwira nawo ntchito mu 2020."
Kafukufukuyu akuwonetsa kuti misika yomwe ikubwerayi ikuwonetsa kuti misika yomwe ikubwera kuposa yomwe sinalembetsedwe bwino mgawo lachinayi - mayiko 80 akukhala otetezeka poyerekeza ndi 38 kukhala riskier (ena onse osasinthika) - ndi imodzi mwazodziwika kwambiri kukhala Russia.
Kubwerera kwake kumachokera kuzinthu zosiyanasiyana, malinga ndi Dmitry Izotov, wofufuza wamkulu ku bungwe lofufuza zachuma FEB RAS.
Imodzi ndiyo kukwera mtengo kwamafuta, kulimbikitsa ndalama zamakampani amafuta ndikutulutsa zochulukirapo pazachuma zaboma.Ndi kukhazikika kwakukulu kwa kusinthana kwa ndalama, ndalama zomwe munthu amapeza zawonjezeka, komanso kugwiritsa ntchito.
Izotov imawonanso kuwongolera kwa bata la boma chifukwa cha kusintha kochepa kwa ogwira ntchito komanso kuchepa kwa ziwonetsero, komanso kukhazikika kwa banki komwe kumabwera chifukwa chothana ndi ngongole zoyipa.
“Kuyambira mu Okutobala chaka chatha mabanki amayenera kuwerengera kuchuluka kwa ngongole kwa kasitomala aliyense amene akufuna kutenga ngongole ya ogula, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti kupeza ngongole kumakhala kovuta.Komanso, mabanki alibe vuto ndi ndalama, ndipo safuna kukopa madipoziti pamlingo waukulu. "
Panayotis Gavras, katswiri wina waku Russia yemwe ndi wamkulu wa mfundo ndi njira ku Black Sea Trade and Development Bank, akuti pali madera omwe ali pachiwopsezo pankhani yangongole, kukula kwangongole kwambiri komanso ngongole zomwe sizikuyenda bwino, zomwe zimasiya Russia poyera pakagwa chuma. mantha.Koma akunena kuti: "Boma lakhala likuyesetsa kusunga zizindikiro zazikuluzikuluzi pansi pa ulamuliro komanso / kapena zomwe zikuchitika m'njira yoyenera kwa zaka zingapo.
"Ndalama za bajeti ndi zabwino, kwinakwake pakati pa 2-3% ya GDP, ngongole za anthu zili mu dongosolo la 15% ya GDP, yomwe yochepera theka ndi ngongole zakunja, ndipo ngongole zakunja zakunja zikutsika, ngakhale pang'ono. mbali imodzi chifukwa cha mfundo zaboma komanso zolimbikitsa za mabanki ndi makampani aku Russia. ”
Kenya, Nigeria ndi unyinji wa obwereketsa kumwera kwa Sahara ku Africa, kuphatikiza kukulirakulira kwa Ethiopia komanso South Africa, adakwezedwa kotala lachinayi limodzi ndi madera a Caribbean, CIS ndi kum'mawa kwa Europe, kuphatikiza Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland ndi Romania.
Kuchulukirachulukira kwa dziko la South Africa kudalipo chifukwa chokweza kukhazikika kwa ndalama za randi kumapeto kwa chaka, komanso kusintha kwa ndale pansi pa Purezidenti Cyril Ramaphosa poyerekeza ndi yemwe adakhalapo kale.
Ku Asia, ziwopsezo zidayenda bwino ku China (kutsika pang'ono komwe kumachitika chifukwa chakusintha kwamisonkho ndi zachuma), pamodzi ndi Philippines, Thailand ndi Vietnam akudzitamandira kuti akukula molimba komanso kupindula ndi makampani omwe akuchoka ku China kuti apewe misonkho.
Kafukufuku wokhudzana ndi chiopsezo cha Euromoney amapereka chiwongolero chothandizira kusintha maganizo a akatswiri omwe akugwira nawo ntchito m'magulu onse azachuma komanso omwe si a zachuma, akuyang'ana pazinthu zazikulu zachuma, zandale komanso zachitukuko zomwe zimakhudza kubweza kwa ogulitsa.
Kafukufukuyu amachitika kotala pakati pa akatswiri azachuma mazana angapo ndi akatswiri ena omwe ali pachiwopsezo, zotsatira zake zidapangidwa ndikuphatikizidwa pamodzi ndi kuchuluka kwa mwayi wopeza ndalama komanso ziwerengero zangongole kuti zipereke ziwopsezo ndi masanjidwe a mayiko 174 padziko lonse lapansi.
Kutanthauzira ziwerengero kumakhala kovuta chifukwa chakusintha kwanthawi ndi nthawi kwa njira zogoletsa za Euromoney kuyambira pomwe kafukufukuyu adayambira koyambirira kwa 1990s.
Kukhazikitsa nsanja yatsopano, yowongoleredwa mu gawo lachitatu la 2019, mwachitsanzo, kwakhudzanso ziwerengero zonse, kusintha kutanthauzira kwazotsatira zapachaka, koma osalankhula kwenikweni za masanjidwe, zomwe zikuchitika nthawi yayitali kapena posachedwapa. kusintha.
Kafukufukuyu ali ndi wolamulira watsopano yemwe ali ndi Switzerland yemwe ali ndi chitetezo chokhazikika patsogolo pa Singapore, Norway, Denmark ndi Sweden zomwe zikupanga otsala asanu apamwamba.
Switzerland ilibe pachiwopsezo chilichonse, monga momwe zikuwonetsedwera ndi mikangano yaposachedwa pa mgwirizano watsopano ndi EU, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mbali zonse ziwiri zikhazikitse ziletso zamsika.Zimakhalanso nthawi ya kukula kwa GDP, kuphatikizapo kuchepa kwakukulu chaka chatha.
Komabe, kuchuluka kwa akaunti komweko kwa 10% ya GDP, bajeti yazachuma, ngongole zochepa, nkhokwe zazikulu za FX komanso njira zandale zofunafuna mgwirizano zimavomereza zidziwitso zake ngati malo otetezeka kwa osunga ndalama.
Kupanda kutero chinali chaka chosakanikirana kwa mayiko otukuka, kuphatikiza US ndi Canada.Onsewa adadziwika kwambiri, ngakhale kuchuluka kwa US kukuwonetsa kulimba mtima kotala lachinayi.
Chuma cha ku Japan chinachepa, chifukwa kugulitsa kwamalonda komanso kupanga mafakitale kudakwera kwambiri pomwe chidaliro chinafika kumapeto kwa chaka.
Mu eurozone, France, Germany ndi Italy adakumana ndi mikangano yapadziko lonse lapansi komanso chiwopsezo chandale, kuphatikiza zisankho ku Italy, kusakhazikika kwa mgwirizano wolamulira waku Germany komanso ziwonetsero zotsutsana ndi kusintha ku Paris zomwe zikuyika boma la Macron pamavuto.
Ngakhale kuti dziko la France linalandira msonkhano wakumapeto kwa chaka, makamaka kuchokera ku ziŵerengero zazachuma zomwe zinali bwino kuposa mmene amayembekezeredwa, katswiri wodziimira pawokha wodzitetezera ku ngozi Norbert Gaillard anatsitsa pang’ono ndalama za boma lake, ponena kuti: “Kukonzanso dongosolo la penshoni kuyenera kuchitidwa, koma kudzakhala kokwera mtengo kwambiri kuposa mmene anthu amachitira. kuyembekezera.Chifukwa chake, sindikuwona momwe chiŵerengero cha ngongole za boma ku GDP chingakhazikike pansi pa 100% m'zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi.
Wina mwa akatswiri ofufuza a Euromoney ndi M Nicolas Firzli, wapampando wa World Pension Council (WPC) ndi Singapore Economic Forum (SEF), komanso membala wa advisory board wa World Bank Global Infrastructure Facility.
Ananenanso kuti masabata asanu ndi awiri apitawa akhala ankhanza kwambiri ku eurozone: "Kwanthawi yoyamba kuyambira 1991 (First Gulf War), malo opangira mafakitale ku Germany (makampani opangira magalimoto ndi zida zapamwamba zamakina) akuwonetsa zizindikiro zazikulu za mgwirizano. kwakanthawi kochepa) ndi kufooka kwadongosolo (kwanthawi yayitali), popanda chiyembekezo kwa opanga magalimoto a Stuttgart ndi Wolfsburg.
"Kupangitsa kuti zinthu ziipireipire, dziko la France tsopano lili mu "ndondomeko yosinthira penshoni" yomwe idapangitsa kuti nduna ya penshoni (komanso bambo woyambitsa chipani cha Purezidenti Macron) atule pansi udindo mwadzidzidzi Khrisimasi isanachitike, ndipo mabungwe a Marxist adayimitsa zoyendera za anthu onse, ndi zowopsa. zotsatira zake pachuma cha ku France. "
Komabe, idakhala chaka chabwinoko kumadera omwe ali ndi ngongole zambiri, ndi Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal komanso, makamaka, Greece pambuyo poti boma latsopano lapakati lidakhazikitsidwa kutsatira kupambana kwa Kyriakos Mitsotakis 'New Democracy ku chisankho chachidule mu Julayi.
Boma lidakwanitsa kugwiritsa ntchito bajeti yake yoyamba popanda kukangana pang'ono ndipo lapatsidwa ndalama zina kuti libweze ngongole chifukwa chokonzanso.
Ngakhale Greece akadali otsika 86th mu masanjidwe chiwopsezo padziko lonse, pansi pa mayiko ena onse yurozone, unamwino lalikulu ngongole ngongole, anaona bwino kwambiri chuma chake mu zaka zoposa khumi chaka chatha ndi pachaka kukula GDP kukwera pamwamba 2% mu mawu enieni. mu gawo lachiwiri ndi lachitatu.
Italy ndi Spain adalembetsanso zopindula kumapeto kwa chaka, poyankha momwe chuma chikuyendera bwino kuposa momwe timayembekezera, kuchepa kwa mabanki ndi nkhawa zangongole, komanso ziwopsezo zandale.
Ofufuza amakhalabe osamala pazayembekezo za 2020. Kupatulapo zoopsa zomwe zimakhudza US - kuphatikiza zisankho za Novembala, ubale wake ndi China komanso momwe zinthu zikuyendera ndi Iran - chuma cha Germany chikuchepa.
Malo ake opangira zinthu akuyang'anizana ndi kuwirikiza kawiri kwa mitengo yamalonda ndi malamulo a chilengedwe, ndipo zochitika zandale sizikudziwika bwino chifukwa mikangano yakula pakati pa omenyera ufulu wa Angela Merkel ndi omwe amatsamira kumanzere kwa demokalase pansi pa utsogoleri watsopano.
Zomwe zikuchitika ku UK ndizovutanso, ngakhale akatswiri omwe ali pachiwopsezo adawona zotsatira zachisankho zomwe zidapereka ambiri a Boris Johnson's Conservatives ndikuchotsa zopinga zamalamulo.
Akatswiri ambiri, kuphatikiza Norbert Gaillard, adakweza zambiri kuti boma la UK likhazikike."Zolinga zanga ndikuti boma la Britain linali losakhazikika komanso lodalira chipani cha Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party mu 2018-2019.
"Tsopano, zinthu zayamba kumveka bwino, ndipo ngakhale Brexit ndiyabwino, Prime Minister Boris Johnson ali ndi anthu ambiri ndipo mphamvu zake zokambirana zidzakhala zazikulu kuposa kale akamakambirana ndi European Union."
Ofufuza adagawanikabe pakati pa omwe, monga Gaillard, anali ndi chidaliro chochulukirapo pamalingaliro omwe apatsidwa njira yotsimikizika yokwaniritsa Brexit, komanso omwe amayang'ana chithunzi chazachuma ndi chuma cha UK mosamala potengera mapulani aboma amawonongera ndalama pagulu komanso chiyembekezo choti ayi. -zotsatira zamalonda ngati zokambirana zamalonda ndi EU zikuyenda bwino.
Komabe, Firzli akukhulupirira kuti eni katundu omwe akhalapo kwanthawi yayitali ochokera ku China - komanso US, Canada, Australia, Singapore ndi Abu Dhabi ('mphamvu zapenshoni') - ali okonzeka kubetcha kwanthawi yayitali ku UK, ngakhale kuwononga ndalama zambiri zaboma komanso kuwopsa kwazachuma kokhudzana ndi Brexit pakanthawi kochepa.
Kumbali ina, maulamuliro azachuma a 'core-eurozone' monga Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands ndi Denmark "atha kukhala ndi nthawi yovuta kukopa osunga ndalama akunja kwanthawi yayitali m'miyezi ikubwerayi".
Kuti mudziwe zambiri, pitani ku: https://www.euromoney.com/country-risk, ndi https://www.euromoney.com/research-and-awards/research kuti mudziwe zaposachedwa kwambiri pazachiwopsezo cha dziko.
Kuti mudziwe zambiri pazachiwopsezo cha akatswiri pa nsanja ya Euromoney Country Risk, lembani kuyesa
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Nthawi yotumiza: Jan-16-2020