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Ngozi yepasi rose yakadzikira mumwedzi yekupedzisira ya2019, sekureva kweEuromoney's nyika yengozi ongororo, sezvo zviratidzo zvebudiriro zvakabuda kupedza kusawirirana pamusoro pegakava rekutengeserana pakati peChina neUS, inflation yakadzikira, sarudzo dzakaunza zvimwe zvakabuda, uye vagadziri vemitemo vakatendeukira kumatanho ekusimudzira. kutsigira kukura kwehupfumi.
Avhareji yeavhareji yenjodzi yepasi rose yakagadziridzwa kubva pachikamu chechitatu kusvika chechina sezvo chivimbo chebhizinesi chakadzikama uye njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika dzakadzikama, kunyangwe zvaive zvichiri pasi pemakumi mashanu kubva pazvibodzwa zana, kwazvakagara kubvira dambudziko rezvemari repasi rose ra2007-2008.
Chibodzwa chakaderera chiri kuratidza kuti kuchine kusagadzikana kwakanaka mumaonero evarimi vepasirese, nekudzivirira uye shanduko yemamiriro ekunze ichiisa mumvuri, dambudziko reHong Kong richiramba, sarudzo dzeUS dziri kuuya uye mamiriro neIran pakati pezvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda zvinochengeta pasi rose. tembiricha yengozi yakawedzera kwenguva ino.
Nyanzvi dzakadzikisira huwandu hweG10 muna 2019, kusanganisira France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK neUS, sezvo kusawirirana kwekutengeserana kwakakanganisa hupfumi uye kushushikana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakawedzera - kusanganisira kunetsa kweBrexit kuri kukonzera imwe sarudzo huru - kunyangwe zvinhu zvakadzikama chikamu chechina.
Kukura kwehupfumi hwehupfumi hwepamusoro kwakadzikira kwegore rechipiri rakateedzana, kudonha pasi pe2% mumashoko chaiwo, maererano neIMF, nekuda kwekudzivirira pakati peUS neChina kune rumwe rutivi, uye US neEU kune rimwe divi.
Njodzi dzakawedzera muLatin America, nekudzikira kunoitika kuBrazil, Chile, Ecuador neParaguay mumwedzi yekupedzisira ya2019, zvichikonzerwa nekusagadzikana munharaunda.
Matambudziko ehupfumi eArgentina pamwe nemhedzisiro yesarudzo ari kushungurudza vatengesi sezvo nyika iri kutangazve kugadzirisa chikwereti.
Vaongorori vakadzikisa zvibodzwa zvavo kune dzimwe misika dzakasiyana siyana dzichiri kusimukira, dzinosanganisira India, Indonesia, Lebanon, Myanmar (sarudzo dzegore rino dzisati dzaitwa), South Korea (yakatarisanawo nesarudzo muna Kubvumbi), neTurkey, sezvo kuvimba nemamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi hwakaderera. .
Zvibodzwa zveHong Kong zvakadzikira zvakare, sezvo kuratidzira kwacho kusingaratidzi kudzikira zvichitevera mibairo mikuru yevamiriri vedemocracy musarudzo dzekanzuru yedunhu munaNovember.
Nekushandisa, kutengesa kunze kwenyika nekudyara kwekudyara, uye vashanyi vanosvika vachidonha, GDP ingangove yakadzikira muchokwadi ne1.9% gore rapfuura nepo fungidziro ichakura ne0.2% chete muna 2020 maererano neIMF.
Remangwana reHong Kong senzvimbo yebhizimisi uye nzvimbo yezvemari ichaparadzwa nezvematongerwo enyika gridlock anotenda Friedrich Wu, muongorori weECR anowanikwa paNanyang Technology University kuSingapore.
"Varatidziri vatora nzira 'yezvose-kana-hapana' ('Five Demands, Not One Less').Panzvimbo pekupa izvi zvinodiwa, zvinopokana nekodzero dzeBeijing, ndinotenda kuti Beijing ichasimbisa tambo dzayo kuHong Kong. "
Panyaya yehuchangamire, Wu anoti Beijing haizombofi yakakanganisa zvisinei nekuti mhedzisiro yacho inorwadza sei.Kunze kwezvo, Hong Kong haisisiri iyo 'hanzi inokandira mazai egoridhe' inokosha, anodaro.
“Kubva pachiteshi chengarava chepasi rose muna 2000, Hong Kong yadzika kusvika pachinomwe, shure kweShanghai, Singapore, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shenzhen, Busan neGuangzhou;uye nhamba yechisere, Qingdao, iri kusimuka nokukurumidza uye ichaikunda mumakore maviri kana matatu.”
Saizvozvo, sekureva kwazvino, Gunyana 2019 Global Financial Centers Index yeLondon, HK ichiri pachinhanho chechitatu, Shanghai yakakwira kusvika pachinzvimbo chechishanu ichikunda Tokyo, uku Beijing neShenzhen vakaiswa pachinhanho chechinomwe nechipfumbamwe zvakateerana.
“Basa reHK sekudyidzana kweupfumi/kwemari pakati penyika huru nenyika yose riri kudzikira nekukurumidza.Ndosaka Beijing ichikwanisa kutora chinzvimbo chakaomarara kune varatidziri, ”anodaro Wu.
Kana ari Taiwan, anowedzera, zviri kuitika mune zvematongerwo enyika muHong Kong zvinongoomesa hunhu hwavo vachipesana nehukama hwepedyo neChina, kunyangwe mune hupfumi kuparara kweHong Kong hakuzove nekukanganisa kukuru pahupfumi hweTaiwan, uhwo hwakanyanya kubatanidzwa nenyika. .
Yakasimbiswa nekusimba kwehupfumi uku, njodzi yeTaiwan yakagadziridzwa mukota yechina, ongororo inoratidza.
"Makambani mazhinji emunyika dzakawanda ane muzinda wedunhu muHong Kong achafunga nezvekuchinja misha yavo kuenda kuSingapore uye vanhu vane mari yakawanda vachaisa humwe hupfumi hwavo mumusika weSingapore une hurongwa hwezvemari uye musika wezvivakwa."
Tiago Freire, mumwe anobatsira paongororo iyi, ane ruzivo rwekushanda muChina neSingapore, ane hungwaru.Anotaura kuti kunyange zvazvo Singapore ichabatsirika kubva kune mamwe makambani anofambisa mabasa avo kubva kuHong Kong kuenda kuSingapore, kunyanya makambani emari, haatendi kuti "yakamira zvakanaka seHong Kong kushanda senzira yekuenda kuChina kumakambani ekunze".
Zvibodzwa zveSingapore zvakatodzikira muchikamu chechina, zvakanyanya zvichikonzerwa nekudzikira kusvika kuhuwandu hwevanhu, chimwe chezviratidziro zvakati wandei muongororo.
"Muchikamu chekupedzisira takaona zvimwe zviitiko zvinonyanya kudzvinyirira kugadzikana kwevanhu muSingapore," anodaro Freire.“Kudivi rembereko, takaona hurumende ichiparura chirongwa chitsva chekubatsira mari inosvika zvikamu makumi manomwe nezvishanu kubva muzana zvemubhadharo weIVF kune vakaroorana vekuSingapore.Nehurombo, izvi zvinoita senge danho rekufananidzira, rinoreva kuratidza kuti hurumende iri kuyedza zvese kuvandudza huwandu hwembereko, uye kwete mhinduro inoshanda kudambudziko, sezvo isingaite zvine musoro.
Hurumende iri kuyedzawo kugadzirisa kudzoreredzwa kwevanobuda munyika uye kuratidzira nguva nenguva nekudzikamisa vanhu vanoenda kuSingapore."Semuyenzaniso, hurumende yeSingapore iri kudzikamisa huwandu hwevatorwa vanoshanda mune mamwe makambani kubva pa40% kusvika 38% yevashandi vavo muna 2020."
Ongororo yacho zvakadaro inoratidza kuti misika iri kusimukira yakawanda kupfuura isina kunyoreswa kuvandudzwa mukota yechina - nyika makumi masere dzichiva dzakachengeteka zvichienzaniswa ne38 dzichiva riskier (dzimwe dzisina kuchinjika) - neimwe yeanonyanya kuzivikanwa iri Russia.
Kudzoka kwaro kuri pasi kune zvakasiyana-siyana, maererano naDmitry Izotov, muongorori mukuru paEconomic Research Institute FEB RAS.
Imwe ndeye mutengo wakakwira wemafuta, kuwedzera mari yekambani yemafuta uye kugadzira yakasara pamari yehurumende.Nekugadzikana kukuru kwekuchinjana, mari yemunhu yakawedzera, pamwe chete nekushandisa.
Izotov inocherekedzawo kuvandudzwa kwekugadzikana kwehurumende nekuda kwekushanduka kushoma kwevashandi uye kudzikira kwekuratidzira, uye kugadzikana kwebhangi kunobva padanho rekugadzirisa chikwereti chakashata.
“Kubva muna Gumiguru gore rapfuura mabhanga ange achinzi averenge huwandu hwechikwereti chemutengi wega-wega anenge achida kutora chikwereti chevatengi izvo zvinoreva kuti kuwana chikwereti kunonetsa.Zvakare, mabhanga haana matambudziko nekushaikwa kwemari, uye haafanire kukwezva madhipoziti pamwero mukuru. "
Panayotis Gavras, imwe nyanzvi yekuRussia inova mukuru wezvemitemo uye zano kuBlack Sea Trade and Development Bank, anoti kune nzvimbo dzekusagadzikana maererano nechikwereti, kukura kwechikwereti chakawandisa uye zvikwereti zvisingaite, zvichisiya Russia iri pachena kana hupfumi hwehupfumi hwavepo. kuvhunduka.Asi anoti: "Hurumende yanga ichishinga kuchengetedza zviratidzo zvakakosha zviri pasi pesimba uye / kana kufamba munzira kwayo kwemakore akati wandei.
"Budget yebhajeti yakanaka, pakati pe2-3% yeGDP, zvikwereti zveveruzhinji zviri muhurongwa hwe15% yeGDP, iyo isingasviki hafu chikwereti chekunze, uye chikwereti chekunze chiri kudzikawo, pasina chidiki. chikamu nekuda kwemitemo yehurumende uye zvinokurudzira kumabhanga eRussia nemafemu. "
Kenya, Nigeria uye ruzhinji rwevakwereta veSouth Africa yeSahara, kusanganisira kukurumidza kuwedzera Ethiopia uye kunyange South Africa, vakakwidziridzwa muchikamu chechina pamwe nezvikamu zveCaribbean, CIS uye kumabvazuva kweEurope, kunosanganisira Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland uye. Romaniya.
Kukwira kweSouth Africa kuri kukonzerwa nekuwedzera kugadzikana kwemari pamwe nekusimbaradza kwerandi kusvika kupera kwegore, pamwe nekusimukira kwemamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika pasi pemutungamiri wenyika, VaCyril Ramaphosa, zvichienzaniswa nevakange vatungamira.
MuAsia, zvibodzwa zvengozi zvakavandudzwa muChina (diki diki rinomuka kubva mumitero uye shanduko yechikamu chemari), pamwe chete nePhilippines, Thailand neVietnam vachizvirumbidza netarisiro yakasimba yekukura uye kubatsirwa kubva kumakambani ari kutama kubva kuChina kudzivirira mitero yekuranga.
Ongororo yenjodzi yeEuromoney inopa gwara rinopindura kune shanduko yemafungiro evaongorori vanotora chikamu mune ese ari maviri emari uye asiri emari zvikamu, achitarisa pane zvakati wandei zvakakosha zvehupfumi, zvematongerwo enyika uye zvimiro zvinokanganisa kudzoka kwevarimi.
Ongororo iyi inoitwa mwedzi wega wega pakati pemazana akati wandei ezvehupfumi nedzimwe nyanzvi dzenjodzi, nemhedzisiro inounganidzwa uye yakaunganidzwa pamwe nechiyero chekuwanikwa kwemari uye huwandu hwechikwereti chakazara kupa huwandu hwengozi uye chiyero chenyika zana nemakumi manomwe nenomwe pasi rese.
Kududzira nhamba kunoomeswa nekuvandudzwa nguva nenguva kuEuromoney's scoring methodology kubvira ongororo yakatanga mukutanga kwema1990.
Kuita chikuva chitsva, chakanatsiridza zvibodzwa muchikamu chechitatu chegore ra2019, semuenzaniso, kwave nemhedzisiro yezvibodzwa zvakakwana, kushandura dudziro yemhedzisiro yegore, asi tisingawanzo kutaura nezve hukama, maitiro enguva refu kana ichangoburwa kota. shanduko.
Ongororo iyi ine hutongi hutsva hwepamusoro-soro neSwitzerland-yakachengeteka ichipinda munzvimbo yekutanga pamberi peSingapore, Norway, Denmark neSweden vachiumba vasara vevashanu vepamusoro.
Switzerland haina njodzi zvachose, sezvinoratidzwa nekukakavadzana kwemazuva ano pamusoro pechibvumirano chitsva neEU, zvichikonzera kuti mativi ese ari maviri aise zvirango zvemusika wemasheya.Izvo zvakare zvinotarisana nenguva dzekufa kweGDP kukura, kusanganisira kudzikira kwakanyanya gore rapfuura.
Nekudaro, iyo yazvino account yakawedzera yegumi muzana yeGDP, bhajeti remari muchiyero, chikwereti chakaderera, yakakura FX matura uye kubvumirana kwakasimba kwekutsvaga hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika hunosimbisa humbowo hwayo senzvimbo yakachengeteka kune vanoisa mari.
Zvikasadaro raive gore rakasanganiswa kunyika dzakabudirira, kusanganisira US neCanada.Ose ari maviri akadzikiswa zvakanyanya, kunyangwe zvibodzwa zveUS zvakaratidza kusimba muchikamu chechina.
Hupfumi hweJapan hwakadzikira, nekutengesa kwezvitoro uye kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri kunonyura sezvo chivimbo chakanyura mukupera kwegore.
MuEurozone, France, Germany neItaly zvakasangana nekukakavadzana kwekutengeserana kwepasirese uye njodzi yezvematongerwo enyika, kusanganisira sarudzo muItari, kusagadzikana mumubatanidzwa wekutonga weGermany uye kuratidzira kunopesana nekuchinja muParis kuri kuisa hurumende yaMacron pasi pekumanikidzwa.
Kunyange zvazvo France yakagamuchira musangano wekupera kwegore, kunyanya kubva kunhamba dzehupfumi dziri nani pane dzaitarisirwa, nyanzvi yakazvimirira yenjodzi Norbert Gaillard akadzikisa mari yehurumende yake zvishoma, achiti: “Kuvandudzwa kwehurongwa hwemudyandigere kunofanira kuitwa, asi kuchadhura kudarika. zvinotarisirwa.Naizvozvo, handisi kuona kuti chikwereti cheveruzhinji-ku-GDP chingadzikama sei pasi pe100% mumakore maviri anotevera.
Mumwe wenyanzvi dzeongororo yeEuromoney ndiM Nicolas Firzli, sachigaro weWorld Pensions Council (WPC) neSingapore Economic Forum (SEF), uye nhengo yedare remazano reWorld Bank Global Infrastructure Facility.
Anotaura pamusoro pekuti mavhiki manomwe apfuura anga aine hutsinye kune eurozone: "Kekutanga kubva 1991 (First Gulf War), nzvimbo yeindasitiri yeGermany (indasitiri yemotokari nemichina yemhando yepamusoro) iri kuratidza zviratidzo zvakakomba zvekubatana ( kwenguva pfupi) uye kushaya simba (kwenguva refu), pasina tariro yekuona kune vanogadzira mota dzeStuttgart neWolfsburg.
"Kuita kuti zvinhu zvinyanye kushata, France yave kupinda muchirongwa che" pension reform" iyo yakaona gurukota remudyandigere (uye baba vakavamba bato remutungamiri wenyika Macron) vasiya basa nechimbichimbi Kisimusi isati yasvika, uye masangano evashandi veMarxist akamisa zvifambiso zvevoruzhinji, zvine njodzi. mhedzisiro kuhupfumi hweFrance. "
Zvakadaro, rakave gore riri nani kune yakatarisana nechikwereti, iine zvibodzwa zvakakwidziridzwa zveCyprus, Ireland, Portugal uye, kunyanya, Greece mushure mekugadzwa kwehurumende yepakati-kurudyi zvichitevera kukunda kweKyriakos Mitsotakis 'New Democracy. sarudzo huru muna Chikunguru.
Hurumende yakakwanisa kupasisa bhajeti rayo rekutanga pasina kukandirana makobvu nematete uye yakapihwa zororo rechikwereti semubhadharo wekugadzirisa mabhindauko.
Kunyangwe Greece ichiri yakaderera 86th mupasi rose njodzi mazinga, pazasi pedzimwe nyika dzese eurozone, ichiyamwisa chikwereti chakakura, yakaona hupfumi hwayo hwakanakisa mumakore anopfuura gumi gore rapfuura nekukura kweGDP kwepagore kuchikwira pamusoro pe2% mumashoko chaiwo. panguva yechipiri neyechitatu.
Italy neSpain zvakanyoresawo mukupera kwegore zvakawana, vachipindura zvirinani-kupfuura-zvinotarisirwa kuita kwehupfumi, kushoma kwebhangi chikamu chebhanga uye kunetseka kwezvikwereti, uye kudzikama kwenjodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika.
Vanoongorora zvakadaro vanoramba vakangwarira tarisiro yegore ra2020. Kunze kwenjodzi dzinobata US - kusanganisira sarudzo dzemunaMbudzi, hukama hwayo neChina uye nemamiriro ari kuitika neIran - hupfumi hweGermany huri kupera.
Hwaro hwekugadzira hwakatarisana nembiri-whammy yemitero yekutengeserana uye mirau yezvakatipoteredza, uye mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika haana chokwadi sezvo kusawirirana kuri kuwedzera pakati pevanochengetedza Angela Merkel nevamwe vake vakatsamira kuruboshwe-kuruboshwe munharaunda yedemocracy pasi pehutungamiriri hutsva.
Mamiriro eUK anoramba achinetsa, kunyangwe nyanzvi dzenjodzi dzakatora mhedzisiro yesarudzo dzakapa huwandu hwakasimba hweBoris Johnson's Conservatives uye kubvisa zvipingaidzo zvemutemo.
Nyanzvi dzakawanda, kusanganisira Norbert Gaillard, vakakwidziridza zvibodzwa zvavo zvekugadzikana kwehurumende yeUK."Pfungwa yangu ndeyekuti hurumende yeBritain yakanga isina kugadzikana uye ichivimba neNorthern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party panguva ya2018-2019.
"Izvozvi, zvinhu zvave kujeka, uye kunyangwe Brexit asina kunaka, mutungamiri wehurumende Boris Johnson ane ruzhinji uye simba rake rekutaurirana richave rakakura kupfuura nakare kose paanotaurirana neEuropean Union."
Vaongorori vakapatsanurwa pakati peavo, saGaillard, vainyanya kuvimba nemaonero akapihwa hwaro hwakasimba hwekuzadzisa Brexit, uye avo vakatarisa mufananidzo weUK wehupfumi uye zvemari nekuchenjerera maererano nehurongwa hwehurumende yekushandisa veruzhinji uye tarisiro yekutadza. -deal mhedzisiro inofanirwa kutengeserana nhaurirano neEU kusimukira zvisina kunaka.
Nekudaro, Firzli anotenda kuti varidzi vezvinhu zvenguva refu kubva kuChina - uye zvakare US, Canada, Australia, Singapore neAbu Dhabi (iyo 'masimba makuru emudyandigere') - vari kuda kuita kubheja kwenguva refu kuUK, kunyangwe kushandisa mari yakawandisa neruzhinji uye njodzi dzemari dzine chekuita neBrexit munguva pfupi-yepakati.
Nekune rimwe divi, nzvimbo dzemari dzechokwadi dze'core-eurozone' dzakaita seGermany, Luxembourg, Netherlands neDenmark "dzingave nenguva yakaoma zvikuru kukwezva vatengesi venguva refu mumwedzi iri kuuya".
Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo, enda ku: https://www.euromoney.com/country-risk, uye https://www.euromoney.com/research-and-awards/research kune ichangoburwa panjodzi yenyika.
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Nguva yekutumira: Jan-16-2020