Pangave makore mashanu apfuura, kumashure muna Mbudzi 2014, pandakatanga chikamu chekukura kwechikamu uye ndakashuma shanduko yese muSA kubva ipapo.
Chinangwa chaive chekuzviratidza kwandiri kuti kudyara kwegovidhi-kukura kunoshanda uye kuti kunogona kuunza govi rinogara richikura iro rinogona kushanda semhinduro yekuwana mari panguva yekuenda pamudyandigere kana sechipo chemari yekudzoreredza.
Kwemakore ese, migove yakawedzera, uye chikamu chetatu chetatu chakakwira kubva pamadhora zviuru gumi kusvika pamadhora zviuru gumi nezvishanu.
Kukosha kwehuwandu hwepodfolio yakakurawo muchikamu chakafanana, ichikura kubva pakatanga madhora zviuru zana kusvika pamadhora zviuru zana nemakumi mana nemasere.
Ruzivo rwandakawana mumakore mashanu achangopfuura rwakandibvumira kukudziridza uye kuedza uzivi hwangu.Avo vainditevera mumakore ose vanoziva kuti ndakanga ndisiri kuita shanduko mupodfolio, ndichiwedzera hutsva hutsva nguva nenguva panguva dzekudhonzwa kwemusika.
Asi gore richangopfuura, uye kunyanya pandiri kuwedzera zvinhu mumwedzi iri kuuya gumi nemaviri kusvika gumi nemasere, zvakanditungamira kuti ndisvike pamhedziso yekuti njodzi dzakawandisa kupfuura kare.
Pane zvinhu zviviri zvinokatyamadza zvakabata pfungwa dzangu uye zvakanditungamira kune danho rekutengesa 60% yepodfolio yangu, ndichifarira mari uye kutsvaga mukana uri nani wekudyara.
Chinhu chekutanga chakabata pfungwa dzangu isimba redhora.Izero kana kuti pedyo kusvika zero mibairo pasi rose yakaita kuti mabhondi mazhinji ehurumende, zvikuru muEurope neJapan, atengeserwe negoho risina kunaka.
Goho rakashata chinhu icho nyika isati yanyatsonzwisisa, uye chekutanga chandakaona ndechekuti mari iri kutsvaga goho rakanaka yakawana denga rakachengeteka mukati meUS Treasury bonds.
Izvi zvinogona kuva mumwe wevatyairi vesimba mudhora zvichienzaniswa nemari huru huru, uye takaona mamiriro ezvinhu aya kare.
Kudzoka muhafu yekutanga ye2015, pakanga pane zvakawanda zvekunetseka kuti simba redhora raizokanganisa migumisiro yemakambani makuru, sezvo dhora rakasimba rinoonekwa sechipo chemakwikwi apo kukura kunotarisirwa kuuya kubva kune dzimwe nyika.Izvo zvakaguma nekudonha kukuru kwemusika mukati memwedzi waNyamavhuvhu 2015.
Kuita kwepotfolio yangu kwakabatana zvakanyanya nekudonha kwegoho reUS bond renguva refu.Iwo maREIT neUtilities ainyanya kunakidzwa nemaitiro iwayo, asi pane imwechete note, sezvo mitengo yemasheya yakakwira, goho rekugova rakadonha zvakanyanya.
Dhora rakasimba rine chekuita nemutungamiri wenyika uye akawanda maTweets emutungamiri wenyika akatsaurirwa kukurudzira Fed kuti idere mitengo pazasi zero uye neizvozvo kuderedza mari yemuno.
Iyo Fed inofunga kuti inomhanyisa yayo yezvemari mutemo agnostically kubva kune ruzha rwese kunze uko.Asi mumwedzi gumi ichangopfuura, yakaratidza zvinoshamisa 180-degree flip mumutemo.Paive pasingasviki gore rapfuura kuti isu taive pakati pekukwira kwechido chekukwira tichifunga kukwira kwakati muna 2019 uye pamwe zvakare muna 2020, iyo yakashandurwa zvisina kujeka kuita 2-3 kucheka muna 2019 uye ndiani anoziva kuti vangani muna 2020.
Zviito zveFed zvakatsanangurwa senzira yekugadzirisa humwe hunyoro mune zviratidzo zvehupfumi uye zvinetso zvinotungamirirwa nekunonoka muhupfumi hwepasi rose uye hondo dzekutengeserana.Saka, kana zvechokwadi paine chimbichimbi chekuchinja iyo monetary policy nekukasira uye zvine hukasha, zvinhu zvinenge zvakatonyanya kuoma zvekuti zviri kutaurwa.Chinondinetsa ndechekuti kana paine dzimwe nhau dzakaipa, kukura kweramangwana mumakore anotevera kunogona kunge kwakadzikira pane zvatakaona kare.
Mhinduro yemisika kune zviito zveFed zvakare chimwe chinhu chatakapupurira kare: Kana pane nhau dzakaipa, izvo zvinogona kutungamirira Fed kuderedza mhindu kana kuisa mari yakawanda muhurongwa kuburikidza neQE uye mashizha achasangana mberi.
Handina chokwadi chekuti yaizobata nguva ino zvichienderana nechikonzero chiri nyore: parizvino hapana QE chaiyo.Iyo Fed yakazivisa kutanga kumisa chirongwa chayo cheQT, asi hapana mari nyowani yakawandisa inotarisirwa kupinda muhurongwa.Kana iripo, iyo inoenderera ye $ 1T yehurumende kushomeka kwegore kunogona kukonzera mamwe matambudziko emari.
Kushushikana kweFed nezvehondo yekutengeserana kunotidzosera kumutungamiri wenyika uye mutemo mukuru wemitero yaari kushandisa.
Ini zvangu ndinonzwisisa kuti sei mutungamiri wenyika ari kuyedza kudzikamisa zvirongwa zveChina zvekutora nyika yekuMabvazuva uye kusvika pachinzvimbo chesimba guru.
MaChinese haavanze hurongwa hwavo hwekuva njodzi huru kune US hegemony pasirese.Kunyangwe iri Made-in-China 2025 kana yakakura Belt uye Road Initiative, zvirongwa zvavo zvakajeka uye zvine simba.
Asi ini handitengi kuzvivimba nekutaura nezve kugona kuita kuti maChinese asaine chibvumirano mwedzi gumi nemiviri sarudzo dzinotevera dzisati dzaitwa.Zvinogona kunge zvisizvo.
Hutongi hweChinese hunobata rondedzero yekudzoka kubva kumakore zana ekunyadziswa kwenyika.Yakaumbwa makore 70 apfuura uye ichiri kushanda nanhasi.Ichi hachisi chinhu chekurerutsa.Uku ndiko kukurudzira kukuru kunoita kuti iite zano rayo uye kutyaira aya mapurojekiti makuru.Handitendi kuti chero chibvumirano chaicho chinogona kuitwa nacho nemutungamiri wenyika anogona kuve aimbova mutungamiri wenyika gore kubva zvino.
Chinonyanya kukosha ndechekuti ndinoona gore rinouya rizere nemafambisirwo ezvematongerwo enyika, kuvhiringika kwemitemo yemari, uye hupfumi husina simba.Kunyangwe ini ndichizviona semudyaridzi wenguva refu, ndinosarudza kuisa imwe mari yangu parutivi uye kumirira kujeka uye nemikana yekutenga iri nani.
Kuti ndiise pamberi pekubata uye kusarudza kuti ndedzipi dzekutengesa, ndakatarisa pane yakatarwa kambani inobata uye ndakaronga zvinhu zviviri: The ikozvino dividend goho uye avhareji kukura kwedividend kukura.
Iyo yero yakasimudzwa runyorwa patafura pazasi ndiyo rondedzero yekubata yandafunga kutengesa mumazuva anouya.
Hukoshi hwese hwezvibatiso izvi hunosvika 60% ye gross portfolio yangu.Mushure memitero, ingangove iri padyo ne40-45% yemambure akakosha, uye iyi imari inonzwisisika yandinoda kubata parizvino kana kuenda kune imwe mari.
Iyo portfolio yaive nechinangwa chekuunza goho re4% uye kukura nekufamba kwenguva yakaunza kukura kwaitarisirwa padividend uye portfolio kukosha kwakatarisana uye mumakore mashanu yakaunza ~ 50% yekuwedzera.
Sezvo misika iri kuswedera pedyo nepamusoro-soro uye huwandu hwekusava nechokwadi hunotutirana, ndinosarudza kutamisa chunk yakakura kubva pamusika uye kumirira padivi.
Kuzivisa: Ini ndiri / isu tiri refu BBL, UL, O, OHI, SO, SCHD, T, PM, CVX, CMI, ETN, ICLN, VNQ, CBRL, MAIN, CONE, WEC, HRL, NHI, ENB, JNJ, SKT, HCP, VTR, SBRA.Ndakanyora chinyorwa ichi pachangu, uye chinotaura maonero angu pachangu.Ini handisi kugamuchira muripo pazviri (kunze kweKutsvaga Alpha).Ini handina hukama hwebhizinesi nechero kambani ine stock inotaurwa mune ino chinyorwa.
Kuwedzera kuburitswa: Maonero emunyori haasi mazano ekutenga kana kutengesa chero chengetedzo.Ndokumbira uite tsvakiridzo yako usati waita chero sarudzo yekudyara.Kana iwe uchida kuwana anogaro gadziridzwa pane yangu portfolio, ndapota pusha pa "Tevera" bhatani.Kufara kuisa mari!
Nguva yekutumira: Kukadzi-21-2020